Members of BCFTA were invited to attend a BCFTA Member Forum with guest speaker Sebastien Mallet of ODA UK to give an update on the War in Ukraine, risks on demand: where next for 2023 grain & oilseed prices?.
If you missed the event, and you would like to view a copy of the recording please CLICK HERE to view the recording – it is password protected – BCFTA2023
Sebastien has kindly shared the following with us which forms part of his weekly presentation from ODA.
A bearish market in a minefield
Many participants in the UK ag. industry, with exposure to grain and oilseed markets, are asking us if they should take advantage of the recent price decline to take more coverage. The question is very legitimate as, even if markets would probably continue to drift down if/when the Ukrainian grain corridor is renewed in March, they could also rebound strongly in 2023. We learnt from 2022 that anything can happen, anytime, anywhere when geopolitics are so directly involved in our markets .
We now have enough data on supply and demand levels to consider that they cannot justify the record prices seen in 2022. Even if world stocks are indeed low, grain and oilseed markets are well supplied. Furthermore, 2023 crops will probably be very satisfactory in Europe.
However, this volatile market story is far from over and traders will remain on their toes for a while. During the coming 3 months, geopolitics, weather conditions and Chinese imports will surely bring more uncertainty. Therefore, this bearish trend should not be immune from major turbulence.
The next trigger will approach fast as we are now less than 4 weeks away from the Grain Deal renewal date. Looking at the past to predict the future, we can only expect Russia to play the usual disruptive game until the last minute. Markets could thus react to any new risks and add value to prices.
We have a long-term bearish view for world prices going forward. Nevertheless, we also need to seriously consider the bullish risk and hedge it to protect decent margins in very volatile context.
It is all about risk management in a very uncertain world, so let's focus on margins and be pro-active to protect them. This is ODA's main objective: to help our clients to make informed decisions based on potential risks and opportunities. We do read in the future but we can help you to manage your risk exposure. Please do not hesitate to contact us for any request, question or advice.
Sébastien Mallet
ODA UK CEO
+33 6 82 83 71 87
Don't forget, we have other BCFTA Member Forum events coming up which can be booked by CLICKING HERE